2010: The Year of the Tablet

While the great debate around digital media content in 2010 revolves around paywalls and paid content versus a world of free, freemium and ad supported content, one thing that both Rupert Murdoch and Google's Eric Schmidt seem to agree on is that in their different visions of the future, the kind of device that people will be consuming their online content on will be a tablet. And the more general expectation is that the most significant tablet device will be the one that Apple are expected to unveil this year (presumably on Wednesday 27th January..)

John Gruber has posted his thoughts on Apple's Tablet- pretty much all of which I agree with, in terms of what I expect the device will be. What I'm not so sure I agree with (and I'm slightly uncomfortable about disagreeing with someone as smart as Gruber) is the way people will use it.

Do I think The Tablet is an e-reader? A video player? A web browser? A document viewer? It’s not a matter of or but rather and. I say it is all of these things. It’s a computer. And so in answer to my central question, regarding why buy The Tablet if you already have an iPhone and a MacBook, my best guess is that ultimately, The Tablet is something you’ll buy instead of a MacBook. I say they’re swinging big — redefining the experience of personal computing.

For "personal computing", I think the age of the desktop machine is coming to a close. But by "personal computing", I don't mean using the PC-type machine that (I think) Gruber is talking about here. I mean the machine that you do personal computing with. Web browsing, email, social networking, shopping, music, video—the kind of things that a boss might not want their staff to be doing in their work time when they are supposed to be writing documents, working on spreadsheets and presentations and so on.

I just don't see the advantages of a personal computer, fixed to a desktop in one location, over a laptop that can be used anywhere in or out of the home or office. I think the things we use computers for work and for pleasure/leisure/personal tasks are changing, and it seems to make more and more sense to me to have different machines for these different tasks.

With the iPhone, Apple transformed the mobile phone. Not because of what it could do— there were plenty of devices before which had web browsers, applications, cameras etc— but because of what people did with it. The way it did things. So I expect an Apple tablet device to do something similar— not to do things that a laptop or smartphone (or eBook reader) can't do, but to do some things better than either. Less bulky and more portable than a laptop, but with a bigger screen and longer battery life than a smartphone. Something that you could easily use in the same places where you might currently be reading a book or a newspaper- standing up on a bus or train, sitting on a sofa or lying in bed, holding it with one hand and occasionally using the other to control it, in the way that you occasionally use a second hand to turn the pages of a book or newspaper. (But with a bigger screen, you wouldn't need your second hand as much as you do with a smartphone for things like scrolling text.) AndBut most importantly, something that you can easily carry around with you in a small bag or a coat pocket- not truly mobile, like a phone that is always going to be in your pocket, but something portable enough to carry around all day without worrying about the bulk or weight.

What's wrong with Netbooks?

Laptops have been getting smaller and lighter, with low-cost and low-powered 'Netbooks' at the edge of this development. My favourite thing about netbooks is the weight; they are light enough that you can carry it around in a bag without worrying about whether you need it— because it's not so bulky or heavy that it's a strain to carry around, you can have it with you whenever you need it, not just the days when you think you might need it when you leave the house.

While there is a problem of a lack of processing power, it's just a short term issue which, sooner rather than later, will be overcome by Moore's law. But the lack of space is a more permanent problem. The laptop form can only go so small; a full sized keyboard can only go to a certain size before it becomes awkward and unusable- if the keys are too small and close together, then typing becomes uncomfortable, and more importantly, unless there is enough space below the keyboard for your wrists to rest then you can't easily type in a comfortable position for any length of time.

While this is fine for the odd bit of googling and so on, it's not useful for typing anything of any length. I'd rather use an iPhone keyboard than an 8.5" netbook, and I just don't think a device with a screen smaller than 13" can fit a comfortably usable keyboard underneath it.

That said, I wouldn't be too surprised to see a smaller, netbook-style keyboard; there are plenty of devices that have a twisty-hinge keyboard that folds away (so it also protects the screen when folded closed), but I don't see a way that this can be a comfortable keyboard. I don't see anything smaller than the 13.3" screen on the Macbook/Pro/Air leaving enough room for a comfortably usable keyboard, because there's also the secondary problem of when and where you can use it. A laptop "form" needs something to put the device on— you can't use it comfortably standing up, or with one hand. The point of a tablet device would be that you don't need the keyboard to use it properly, and I don't see how something with a screen the size of a Macbook Air would manage to weigh much less— which would be too heavy to hold upright comfortably for any length of time.

Another problem is the usability of a small trackpad, positioned close to the keyboard because of the limited space, and problems that can happen if you accidentally tap it with your thumb while typing. So while netbooks are nice enough (and will get nicer as they get more powerful), the real problem isn't the size or the weight or the power. It's the laptop shape. But with a small touchscreen, this problem could be overcome.

The point is, if a keyboard is important to you, then you won't want a tablet. But think about all the things that you don't need a keyboard for- or where a tiny keyboard like that on an iPhone or Blackberry or Kindle will do the job well enough? I think anyone can agree that entering text using a TV remote control (or the control pad of a games console) is a woefully inadequate experience- even for just putting something into Google. (Let alone entering your email address and password...) But the "just about good enough" experience of a cramped netbook keyboard just doesn't seem to me to justify taking up so much space, or restricting you to a seated, two handed mode of usage.

But what will a tablet do?

There's a post on Ars Technica with some sensible predictions about the way Apple are likely to approach putting their tablet together; in short, evolution not revolution.

A touch screen would get around the problems of the user interface, so there would be no need for a trackpad. The part that I'm not so sure about is the display. LCD colour screens are great, but they need to be backlit— which is bad news if you want to read lots of text on them, and bad news for the battery life. (Especially if it's large.) On the other hand, "e-ink" like the Kindle and other eBook readers use is black and white, and slow— so not good for images or video. Perhaps Apple have an innovative solution to this problem?

The keyboard is a trickier thing to replace with a different piece of hardware, which is why I think a tablet is ultimately something you would use as well as— not instead of— a Macbook. Your Macbook (or PC laptop) would be your primary computer, with the storage space for all your photos, music and documents, and the keyboard you'd want to use for writing. It's what you'd use for editing your photos, writing long emails or documents, managing your music library and so on. I don't think a tablet would be able to do these things well, so it would be a secondary computer, mainly for "consuming" content, while your iPhone (or other smartphone) would sit alongside it as your always-on, always-present communications device.

What will go on it?

As far as software goes, my guess is that it will be running something like a more advanced version of the iPhone OS- enabling the kind of functionality that the iPhone currently can't do at the moment, but (presumably) will do in the future when technology improves (eg. multitasking.) Similar to the way Microsoft's Smartphone and Pocket PC platforms converged into Windows Mobile, I suspect that the tablet will be something that will eventually converge with the iPhone OS, using the same Darwin foundation, Core Services and Cocoa Touch.

It seems like an easy win to enable iPhone applications to run on a larger device, but opening it up to the "proper" Apple platform would mean losing control and enabling all sorts of piracy and competition issues (such as the problems Apple had with putting the Google Voice VOIP software on the iPhone.) With the massive data centre that Apple are building, there could be something very interesting in the pipeline there; whether that's an improved and expanded Mobile Me service, or something like iTunes opening up to streaming music and TV (something I've been wondering about for a while— remember, they recently bought music streaming service LaLa) or maybe an Apple managed and controlled newspaper/magazine distribution platform exclusively delivering either paid for or free (ad supported) content to Tablets and iPhones. (Also note that Apple have just bought mobile ad company Quattro Wireless for $275 million, which could play into this vision.)

Which brings us back to the similarities between the visions of Google and News International; that the device that online media will be consumed on will be some sort of tablet. That's the point; this isn't the kind of device that will be used to do "work", but to "consume"- read the news, magazines or books, watch videos or TV, or listen to music/radio/podcasts and so on. iPhone Applications provide a framework for paid content; either a paid application that provides access to content (like the Guardian application), or free applications that provide access to subscription-based services (like Spotify.) I wouldn't be surprised to see a Google Chrome Tablet before the end of the year, delivering all the free online content that's available on the web.

And that's why the tablet will be important; because as a consumer device, with the weight of publishers behind it (in the same way that the iPod's success had a lot to do with the support that iTunes had from the record labels), with the iTunes distribution network to supply paid-for content and a big screen that's more suited to display advertising than the tiny phone screen for online ad-supported content, it won't be the device, but what people will do with it and put onto it that will make it an appealing product.